It has been more than a month since George Zimmerman killed Trayvon Martin. The apparent reason he has not been indicted is because there is at least one eyewitness who witnessed Zimmerman being attacked by Trayvon Martin. Is this witness credible? We don’t know, but you can have a pretty good idea that the police believe this witness.
But there is other evidence that could support an indictment or charge for murder or at least manslaughter. However, it is not nearly as strong as the protesters and uninformed celebrities like Oprah Winfrey seem to think it is. For example, the fact that voice identification seems to show that George Zimmerman was not the screaming voice apparently calling for help could show that George was in charge of the situation before firing the fatal shot.
There are other things we need to know, though, before painting a picture based on forensic evidence. It is often said that witnesses lie but that science doesn’t lie. This is not exactly true, but if the ballistics either corroborate or conflict with the eyewitness testimony in this case, then it could be a very strong determinant of whether Zimmerman is indicted.
There is something else that people are also missing. The funeral director said that there were no signs of a fight on Trayvon Martin’s body. If the police did see signs of injury and if George Zimmerman’s nose really was broken, then that suggests that Trayvon was not only the aggressor but was also dominating the fight. This would corroborate Zimmerman’s side of the story.
There has been much talk of a police surveillance video of George Zimmerman that shows no apparent injuries. I will no longer dignify the arguments of the bloodthirsty crowd on this one. Suffice it to say that if someone thinks they can diagnose whether someone has a broken nose or had blood on them BEFORE in a totally different location, then that person’s opinions on George Zimmerman’s guilt and whether he should be indicted are not worth my time.
To the extent of whether there is probable cause to arrest and indict George Zimmerman for the murder or manslaughter of Trayvon Martin, there is no precise definition of probable cause in terms of the likelihood of guilt. But suffice it to say that it is a very low standard for the most part. Thus, Zimmerman could be indicted even if the evidence is relatively weak. But that does not mean that he SHOULD be indicted. It just means that it is legally possible.
Will he actually be indicted? I’d put the odds at at least 50%. And he may even plead guilty to a lesser offense like reckless endangerment or negligent homicide to move past this incident. Nothing is certain.
The last point is the Florida Stand Your Ground law. This could prevent both an arrest and a prosecution, but that would be determined by a judge after arrest and indictment. So it is not going to be a bar to at least indictment if the police and/or prosecutors get an indictment under the theory that George Zimmerman was never actually standing his ground or used excessive force in defending himself.
This case is far weaker than it is being portrayed by the money-hungry media that wants to feed the story instead of just report facts. But a standard for indictment is very low - so low that people say a grand jury would indict a ham sandwich. In this case, the extra hurdle is the Stand Your Ground law. But if the prosecutor has a theory (and it needs to be based partially on forensic evidence) that Zimmerman was never actually standing his ground against deadly force, then Zimmerman can still be indicted. Whether he would then be convicted of murder or manslaughter is an entirely different story that will come down to the facts and the particular biases of the people sitting on a jury. The last thing I expect is to see a jury trial in this case. I would expect either no indictment or a plea to a lesser charge.